Rubbery Poll Interpretation – I blame the GFC. Check Centrebet next time

There has been much ado about the interpretation of Galaxy pre-election opinion poll on the Queensland election which predicted a win for the LNP and the actual poll result.

The folowing should be noted

  • No margin of error was not reported.
  • The method of sampling was not reported.
  • The reported sample size was 800.
  • No break down of the sample in age or urban/rural reported
  • The electorate of Queensland is bigger than the city of Melbourne and is spread over a couple of multiples of size of the state of Victoria.
  • Brisbane is closer to Melbourne than Townsville.
    Update

Bob on Unleashed at abc.net.au

There are many ways a poll, if manipulated, can get you a false, convenient result. You can take the poll on a holiday weekend when many younger, and therefore Labor-leaning voters, or Green-leaning voters, aren’t at home. You can take the poll in early January when (as always) the Labor vote and the Green vote will go dramatically down for this reason, when many, many voters are in a caravan park or a holiday motel, or overseas. You can ring up on Friday night when only the old, the ill, the poor, the loveless and the mad are at home, these being more likely Liberal voters or National voters or One Nation voters or Independents. You can ring on Saturday morning when the prosperous are out shopping. You get more Liberal voters at home that way, saying Lawrence Springborg for me.

This is the way, I suggest, that Newspoll gives its principal client Rupert Murdoch what he wants and why Newspoll is widely known as “the Bill O’Reilly of statistics”.

Newspoll is very careful to go where the ambiguity is, and show no-one its raw figures. Why otherwise its raw figures should be secret is hard to say. These figures are “adjusted”, we are told, “to reflect population distribution”. I’ll bet they are.

Newspoll, moreover, rings no mobile phones, just those people who happen to be home on Friday nights and not, say, at the pub. Just those people who possess home phones (many young people don’t any more) and don’t mind giving up half an hour of their evening when they might be cooking dinner. Those who do mind are listed as “refused”. Only those who speak English, and speak English well, are persisted with, I am told; otherwise, I am told, Newspoll hangs up, and lists them as “refused”.

Queensland State election. 2009

I did my civic duty and voted.

My record is still unbroken. The last wiining candidate I voted for was Don Lane and he went to jail. In mitigation, I voted for him because he running against Santo Santoro and one of Santo’s aides had the gall to nail one of Santo’s posters to a tree.

The situation is back to Queenslands default state which is that of Labor. A Woman premier has managed to be re-elected. For centuries women have claimed (rightly) that they would be as good as men in politics, sadly they have been just as bad.

Premier Bligh will now try to fix the Queensland economy by digging another hole under the Brisbane river and using more wonderful public private partnerships. In all fairness I doubt much would change in these policies if we had Premier Springborg instead.

If the LNP had a weakness, it was their association with smaller government which means fewer jobs.

Considering the challenges that Australia and Queensland face, I wish all the best for Premier Bligh and may the Almighty bless her.

Who Learned these Pollies

Rod Welford – more qualifications than you can shake a stick at.

Captain Anna Bligh – Bachelor of Arts from UQ 

In Queensland we have the unerring ability to go to the USA and the UK study how they do things and return to immediately implement the worst of what they do.

Practice tests to get QLD students up to speed

Queensland schools have done poorly in tests. So what is the solution, train Queensland school children to pass the tests, not do the more expensive option of actually improving the education that the testing was supposed to measure. (Who would want to be a teacher?) We have fallen into the known trap of teaching to the test. Did any of you think this through?

There seems to be thousands of Education Queensland employees, why haven’t one of you actually pointed this out to Rod Welford?

Mr Kerry Shine – you are another smart man, why haven’t pointed this out to your fellow cabinet colleagues?

As for Lawrence Springborg being smart enough to see the obvious problem, well that is why he is in opposition.

May be the fluoride is starting to hit the brains of the above pollies.